Near Space Ventures balloon track prediction down?

Hi everybody,

Does anyone know what's up with the Near Space Ventures balloon flight track prediction web site? For the last few days the access code one has to type in on page 2 hasn't been showing up. I think this is a code required by NOAA to access their data from the Near Space Ventures site.

Are there any other ways to make flight predictions? I know about the jet stream forecast maps at http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_init_00.gif , but I am not sure how to get information beyond a rough idea of the direction.

I hope you you are all having a great summer with lots of successful balloon flights!

Bernhard

Tags: flight, prediction, track

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Permalink Reply by Bernhard Beck-Winchatz on July 11, 2010 at 9:05am

Near Space Ventures is still down, and I am getting nervous because we're doing a launch with a group of high school students next week :S Last year Howard Brooks posted a comment saying that DePauw also uses a program called “Balloon Track for Windows” along with high-altitude wind profiles from the University of Wyoming to make a prediction.

http://tinyurl.com/2e45d3p

Does anybody have any experience with this? (I haven't had a chance to try it, yet, because I don't have a Windows computer at home.) Below are the (slightly reorganized) instructions from the University of Montana BOREALIS handbook:

BALLOON TRACK PREDICTIONS:

You can use a free software package called “Balloon Track for Windows” to predict (roughly) where the balloon is likely to go. We have found that the predicted landing site is usually good to within 10 miles, provided you update the calculations with accurate rise rate data.
The software is available from:

http://www.eoss.org/wbaltrak/index.html

Once you install the software, play with it a little bit to familiarize yourself. “Setup” on the menu bar will allow you to modify the characteristics of your flight simulation. For example, you can input the altitude, at which you expect the balloon to burst, the location of the launch site, and the rise and descent rates. Typically, we try to fill the balloon such that the rise rate is 900 feet per minute and our 9 foot diameter parachute simulates well with a 1100 feet per minute descent rate.

High altitude wind profiles from actual sounding data are available from the University of Wyoming Department of Atmospheric Science. This data in text file format is what will be needed as input for the balloon tracking software. The sounding data is updated twice each day, at 0:00 and 12:00 Greenwich Mean Time.

Sounding Data:
http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html

Make sure to save the file as a .txt format file. To insert the data into the simulation, select “Open” from the File menu in the menu bar. Next use “Browse” to select the file you saved. The software will then open a new save dialog box. Save the file in the location it provides as the type it selects. This converts the file to a format usable by the software. The software automatically runs the simulation with the settings saved as the default in the “Setup” menu. If you change anything after opening the data file, you should click the force recalculation button to be sure the new settings have taken effect.

The track screen produces a visual depiction of the flight path similar to the one above.
The summary screen contains the most important information including the range and bearing to the estimated landing site.

Once you run a profile for the current day, you can use this as a baseline comparison when you look at the predicted wind conditions from the UNISYS web site. This will allow you to come up with some rough estimates on how the trajectory will change for the actual flight date.

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Permalink Reply by Howard Brooks on July 12, 2010 at 1:58pm

Here's another site that works fairly well. The descent tail may be a little long. Watch your units :)

http://www.srcf.ucam.org/~cuspaceflight/predict/index.php

Howard

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Permalink Reply by Bernhard Beck-Winchatz on July 12, 2010 at 7:44pm

Thanks, Howard! Near Space Ventures is back up! I compared its predictions with those of
http://www.srcf.ucam.org/~cuspaceflight/predict/index.php
and
http://weather.uwyo.edu/polar/balloon_traj.html,
and they seem fairly consistent. For example, a launch from Koerner Aviation in Kankakee at 11:00 AM, 1000 ft/min ascent and descent rates, 90,000 ft burst altitude gives me the following landing sites:
Near Space Ventures: 40.89, -87.33
U Cambridrige: 40.83, -87.48
U Wyoming: 40.87, -87.38
All withing less than 10 miles

However, the EOSS Windows-based program gives me a completely different prediction: 40.94, -86.65. Here is a map of these four predictions:

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geo...

I am sure I am entering wrong information somewhere (the imput is much more detailed than for the other three programs), but it's not obvious to me where.

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Permalink Reply by Howard Brooks on July 16, 2010 at 9:13am

Bernhard,

The EOSS program has a much more complicated interface. However, it also leaves a nice record of its predicted path for comparison with other predictors. You can get the total predicted data file, like U Wyo, and compare points along the path to see where the differences arise.

However, one simple problem could be on the Setup panel. I have found that you need to check the Use Burst box next to the burst altitude. If you don't the program will run to a different altitude, based on your wind profile input. I also check the burst option under Select Mode.

Hope this helps,
Howard